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I have did 2 separate posts on the Singapore weekly stock market trends and weekly trends of Hong Kong Hang Seng index respectively. I think it is also important to look at how the big brothers of world stock markets are performing.

There has been quite a lots of bad fundamental news surrounding the US stock market now. Inflation is worrying, house price is dropping to a new low, plus there might be another round of the sub-prime concern that is hitting the 2 big mortgage giants in US. The market has been bleeding and dropping in the last 2-3 months. It has finally come to a halt last 2-3 weeks by swing sideway. That’s a relief to many of us, isn’t it?

What is the outlook of the US stock market trends in the near future?

Let’s take a look at the three key indices in the US stock markets now. They are Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq.

I choose to start with a good news first. Hopefully, this good news will spread across and bring us more good news that we like to hear

Nasdaq is Trending Up

Nasdaq has been going on an up trend since mid July. It has now crossed over the 200d MA resistance now. It is a very strong up trend we can see from the chart. There might be some short term correction soon as it near the 200d MA line and also RSI has gone overbought.

ADX and MacD are showing momemtum to move up the trend. In the case of a retracement, as long as the low does not retrace back to the July low, that may confirm a higher low formation and it will be possible for Nasdaq to continue the uptrend. We can use the fibonacci retracements to estimate the level of correction.

Looking at this trend now, Nasdaq is having Bull on its side now with a 60:40 chance against the bear. Volume in Nasdaq is pretty healthy.

Now, the question will be, can Nasdaq lead a reversal to the overall US stock market and spread it bullish mood to his brothers Dow Jones & S&P500?

US Nasdaq Weekly Stock Market Trends

Dow Jones Ascending Triangle Break or Not

As Nasdaq is leading the bull in the US stock market. Our big brother Dow Jones is still stucked inside an ascending triangle formation, which is a good positive sign. However the diminishing volume is a concern and the ascending triangle will not have enough power to rocket up if the market participation is low.

Furthermore, we can also observe that the price is now getting near and near to the vertex of the ascending triangle. Usually, ascending triangle will not be successful if it is too near to the vertex. So, if it is a real ascending triangle, the breakout must happen this week. Otherwise, we can actually disqualify the ascending triangle formation. This is the Break or Not week.

ADX is showing uncertainty on the trend now. MacD and RSI is showing some early sign of a positive up trend, however, it is just an early signal now.

US Dow Jones Weekly Stock Market Trends

Uncertain S&P500

Among the 3 indices, S&P shows the most unertainty. I am seeing similar trends on S&P500 as the Dow Jones, sideway movement and the diminishing volume divergence is the concern. Indicator are not conclusive at the moment.

I am seeing S&P500 are waiting for his brothers Dow Jones & Nasdaq to show him where to go.

US S&P 500 Weekly Stock Market Trends

Final Verdict: Nasdaq Leads The Way, Dow Jones & S&P500 Uncertain

My final verdict will be Bull is accompany Nasdaq with a 60:40 probability against the bear. However, Dow Jones and S&P500 are still a 50:50 probability unless an ascending triangle break out happen this week.

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.