4 More days to go before Christmas and another 4 more days to go before 2010 new year celebration. We are left with only 8 trading days in 2009.
Do you know what is the performance of 2009 stock markets so far? At Which point do you think the markets will close on 31 Dec 2009?
2009 Stock Market Performance
I have tabulated some of the 2009 stock market data for your reference and review. I am sure you have known we have rebounded from the 2009 low with an impressive figure. You can easily see from the table below that all the major markets have recovered 50% – 90% of the lost ground. This is an impressive figure definitely.
If you look at the last quarter of 2009, US markets performed pretty well as well by gaining about 4% – 6%. Now, the question is : We are left with 8 trading day, do you think we can sustain this gain so far?
If you ask me, I think we will close the year pretty much at the same level we are seeing now.
2008 was definitely a bad year for the fund manager. Therefore, the fund market definitely would like to report a good performance in 2009 as their bonuses are usually tied to the fund performance. It is definitely in their biggest interest to hold the index and performance as high as possible and to pocket their performance bonuses (Some people call this Index Dressing).
2009 Key Stock Markets Performance
What Happened in Jan 2010?
Now, after reporting a good year and after the fund manager cash out their bonuses, what can happen in Jan 2010?
I have no idea now. But I think 2010 will not be a sustainable bull year definitely. We could possibly see a big downward movement due to the following reasons:
- Firstly, it is still a big uncertainty that the world economy is totally back on growing track.
- Secondly, the US is still facing lots of fundamental issues like high unemployment or a possible inflation hike.
- Third, it is a year that US might start to raise its interest rate again.
- Forth, the Dubai crisis is not totally resolved yet.
- Europe might be hit by the Dubai crisis.
- Japan deflation pressure.
- How governments pull out from their aid.
Anyway, 2009 is a cheering year for traders and investors. 2010 is likely to be another round of roller coaster ride again!
DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
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