Do you know what is the performance of 2009 stock markets so far? At Which point do you think the markets will close on 31 Dec 2009?

2009 Stock Market Performance

I have tabulated some of the 2009 stock market data for your reference and review. I am sure you have known we have rebounded from the 2009 low with an impressive figure. You can easily see from the table below that all the major markets have recovered 50% – 90% of the lost ground. This is an impressive figure definitely.

If you look at the last quarter of 2009, US markets performed pretty well as well by gaining about 4% – 6%. Now, the question is : We are left with 8 trading day, do you think we can sustain this gain so far?

If you ask me, I think we will close the year pretty much at the same level we are seeing now.

2008 was definitely a bad year for the fund manager. Therefore, the fund market definitely would like to report a good performance in 2009 as their bonuses are usually tied to the fund performance. It is definitely in their biggest interest to hold the index and performance as high as possible and to pocket their performance bonuses (Some people call this Index Dressing).

2009 Key Stock Markets Performance

What Happened in Jan 2010?

Now, after reporting a good year and after the fund manager cash out their bonuses, what can happen in Jan 2010?

I have no idea now. But I think 2010 will not be a sustainable bull year definitely. We could possibly see a big downward movement due to the following reasons:

1. Firstly, it is still a big uncertainty that the world economy is totally back on growing track.
2. Secondly, the US is still facing lots of fundamental issues like high unemployment or a possible inflation hike.
3. Third, it is a year that US might start to raise its interest rate again.
4. Forth, the Dubai crisis is not totally resolved yet.
5. Europe might be hit by the Dubai crisis.
6. Japan deflation pressure.
7. How governments pull out from their aid.

Anyway, 2009 is a cheering year for traders and investors. 2010 is likely to be another round of roller coaster ride again!

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Europe is also falling today and US future looks to open lower too after the thankgiving.

Dubai Debt Seems to Get Worse

This is definitely an important week to watch out as it might be a possible event to trigger another round of global stock market meltdown. Plus, I have just seen another news on CNBC that official said “Dubai World Debt Gets No State Guarantee“… This is definitely another bad news to shaken the investor’s confidence.

Anyway, just remember to watch out more news this week. Here’s an video that I found on CNBC which I found interesting for you to understand more about the situation in Dubai.

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Let’s take a look at the Hong Kong Hang Seng using Technical Analysis now!

Hong Kong Hang Seng Broke Supports

If you look at the chart of the Hang Seng now, you can see that the gap down formed last Friday has become an immediate resistance now at approximately 22,110 level.  You can also see that Hang Seng has broken down the upward channel and also it broke the 20d and 50d EMA support.

Hang Seng is now supported at the 100d EMA and also supported at the previous low of 21,130 level, which was last Friday close.

All indicators are showing some downward pressure that Hang Seng is experience now.

Price Movement in Coming Week is Critical

If you ask about the overall market, I would say that the bullish market is still intact as Hang Seng is still trading above the 200d MA. However, it is important to monitor the price movement in the coming week.

If Hang Seng is not able to break above the gap resistance, there is a likelihood to form a head and shoulder pattern, which can signal possible reversal. The support of 21,130 is also critical because the market can form a lower low if this support does not hold, which again may signal possible begining of a down trend.

So, remember to monitor closely in the coming week usnig technical analysis to be an informed trader in the market, then, you won’t be caught with surprise.

Happy Trading!!!

Hong Kong Hang Seng Black Friday Fall

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

You can read more details on Yahoo Finance.

Asian Black Friday Nov2009

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

There are lots of enthusiasm in the economy recovery, and US Dow Jones has therefore been running upwards.

However, if comparing to many other emerging markets, US Dow Jones has been lagging behind the BRIC.

Is Dow Jones Upwards Momemtum Sustainable?

The question many people like to ask now is whether the bull market is sustainable on Dow Jones. Let’s take a look at the Dow Jones chart and analyse it using Technical Analysis.

If you look at the price action now, the upward channel is still valid, price is still moving above all the major moving average lines, therefore the price upward momemtum is still valid.

Volume is reducing, which can form a possible volume divergence, we just need to monitor closely for a possible trend reversal.

Looking at the indicators, MACD is trending in the positive region, suggesting a upward trend. The MacD histogram is reducing suggesting a possible short term correction.

RSI has been trading above 40%, suggesting the bull trend is still valid.

Stochastic is showing oversold in the market. A short term correction is possible.

In summary, the price and indicators all show that the long term upward movement is still intact as of now. Though there is a possible of short term correction and volume divergency may further suggest a possible trend reversal.

Given all this information, I will be willing to go in long at the moving average support to bet the market is continuing its upward movement with a stop loss at 5% below the support.

Dow Jones Stock Market Trend Nov 24, 2009

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Let’s take some time to look at the Singapore STI today.

STI Set New High of Year

STI continues the uptrend and achieved a new high of year yesterday. I am sure you can see that the market weakens today with black candle. STI high the limit of upper trendline of an upward channel. Therefore, today’s correction is normal to see.

Now, it will be interesting to see if STI can continue to break this high at 2,785 to scale a new high. I will have doubt with that. I am see the volume continues to trend lower and lower despite the upward price movement. This forms the volume – price divergence in technical analysis and there is a likely to have a trend reversal soon.

I am also see the indicator are now moving in the oversold region as well, short term correction down to the lower trendline is inevitable. The lower trendline will also act as a price support too. If you observe that the support is broken in the coming days, there can signal a likelihood of a trend reversal coming.

So, meanwhile, beware beware and trade with care!!!

Singapore STI New High 2009

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

This shows that the market is still very undecisive now. It might be a tug of war between the bull and the bear this week.

Falling Volume on Dow Jones is Concern

I am seeing the volume falling on Dow Jones, that’s the key important bearish sign on top of the stagnant price movement.

The best strategy to apply now is hold and watch. We need to see a better signal to confirm the market direction first before taking action!

Dow Jones Industrial Average

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Higher Possibility of Bearish Formation

The current bull market seems to still remain intact as the second upward trendline is still valid at this point (Red line in the following chart). I have also noticed that the volume is dropping as well. There is no way to propell the market if participation is low.

I am also seeing a bearish cross over on MacD indicator as well. RSI and Stochastic are in the oversold region for quite a long while.

Base on this information, I am seeing that STI is going bearish at least for short term as a correction. The support will be 2,274 and resistance at 2,424 level.

Singapore Straits Time Index

DISCLAIMER: This information is used for learning purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.